Can unity alone win elections?

With the Thackeray cousins inching towards a political reunion Raj and Uddhav may have struck an emotional chord with the Marathi manoos But emotion alone cannot win elections The real challenge of reviving the Marathi voter base and winning back lost ground is no less than lsquoMission Impossiblersquo for the cousins They will have to blend emotional connect with aspirational delivery on promises jobs growth and real change for the local Marathi populationThe cousins face a tough time winning the BMC elections and the municipal corporations in the Mumbai Metropolitan Region Especially for two reasons the Marathi voter base they rely on is shrinking and the splits in several political partiesIf the Thackeray cousins want their political brand to survive in Maharashtra in the long run they will have to rebuild the Marathi voter base Without a clear plan to strengthen those numbers their emotional appeal and unity will not be enough to win elections Or else the cousins will have the other option to shift from regional identity politics to inclusive lsquorajneetirsquo But this option might not go down well with Marathi voters and even backfire costing both the Maharashtra Navnirman Sena MNS and the Shiv Sena UBT campShiv Sena founder the late Balasaheb Thackeray had a strong connection with the Marathi manoos By burying their 20 years of differences Raj and Uddhav are trying to rebuild that legacy Like heirs to a political lsquoGodfatherrsquo legacy they must prove they can translate emotion into real influence With this the nostalgia part is doneBut politics is not a museum of nostalgia The real challenge lies ahead in delivering on the aspirational part Bal Thackerayrsquos followers were driven more by identity than opportunity Today that era has faded Mumbai has changed Marathispeaking people now comprise less than 35 per cent of the city Migrant communities like Gujarati North Indian and Rajasthani together make up nearly half of the cityrsquos 14 crore population The BJP has leveraged this demographic shift building strong clout among migrants In Mumbairsquos 36 Assembly seats 13 MLAs are nonMarathi seven from the BJP In the BMC in 2017 72 of the 227 corporators were nonMarathi and half of them were from the BJPWhile BJP consolidates migrant votes the younger Marathi generation especially Gen Z cares more about opportunities than identity Marathi asmita does matter to them but jobs better cities opportunities that donrsquot force them to migrate and a future that feels secure matter moreNearly 2454 lakh young people in Maharashtra are registered for jobs but remain unemployed For them the real question is whether leaders can turn slogans into salariesThe Thackeray cousins may not be in power today and some might ask how they could deliver on their promises But for any opposition party the real task is to sell vision present a plan that connects with the people through a clear manifestoThe big question is whether Raj and Uddhav have anything to offer in the coming years for the local body polls and for Maharashtra as a whole Will this new alliance if it happens reshape Maharashtrarsquos political landscape and create enough jobs to meet the aspirations of the unemployed deliver better governance unclog traffic keep hawkers organised prevent flooding improve civic amenities and bring real urban planning to the citiesBesides delivering results the Thackeray cousins uniting for the pride of the Marathi manoos will also have to make sure the voice of the locals is heard and respected in an India that is rapidly globalising These are the questions that will matter far more than emotionsIn 2017 the undivided Shiv Sena had 84 seats in the BMC just two ahead of the BJPrsquos 82 But after Eknath Shindersquos 2022 revolt more than half of Uddhavrsquos corporators switched sides Rajrsquos MNS once a force has slipped into irrelevance Thatrsquos why the upcoming civic polls are nothing short of a doordie battle for the Thackeray cousinsThe Shiv Sena was born in 1966 on the promise of protecting Marathi asmita But as Mumbai grew and urbanised the Marathi population has steadily declinedClearly Raj and Uddhav cannot rely on nostalgia or cultural pride to stay in power They will have to build an agenda and manifesto of dreams that catches the eye of every voter especially the Marathispeaking populationUnless this changes turning the tables on the BJP would be not an easy task The BJP is keen to wrest BMC from Senarsquos powerBJP for long has been eyeing singlehanded power in Asiarsquos richest municipal corporation the BMCNow the ruling regime under the leadership of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and CM Devendra Fadnavis the BJP has two advantages on its side for this civic election One an inclusive appeal in cosmopolitan Mumbai and two a vision of infrastructure and developmentoriented urban planningAgainst the vision of politics emotion alone cannot hold the ground Thus along with the Marathi pride card the Thackeray cousins will have to build an equally competing modern vision to ensure total control over the municipal corporation of the financial capital of IndiaIf Shiv Sena UBT and MNS fail to deliver on the aspirational front the nostalgia element will not come to bail Uddhav and Raj out of the current political situationBut if the cousinsrsquo unity and strategy succeed Raj and Uddhav will script a comeback of the powerful Thackeray brand which will carry their weight in the Maharashtra of tomorrowSanjeev Shivadekar is political editor midday He tweets SanjeevShivadekSend your feedback to mailbagmiddaycomThe views expressed in this column are the individualrsquos and donrsquot represent those of the paper