How voter sentiments could shape the outcome of Maharashtra Elections 2024

The stage is set for Maharashtra Elections 2024 as the dates are approaching In the last two years the political landscape of the state has witnessed major changes with bothndashShiv Sena and Nationalist Congress Partyndashsplit Voters have now been put in a predicament as parties have regroupedUnderstanding how these changes impact voter sentiment can reveal much about the direction the state may take in the upcoming Maharashtra Elections 2024The context of division Shiv Sena and NCP splitsOne of the most significant changes in Maharashtras political landscape is the split within the Shiv Sena Previously led by Uddhav Thackeray the Shiv Sena has split into two factions the Shiv Sena Uddhav Balasaheb Thackeray and the Shiv Sena led by Eknath Shinde who is now the states Chief Minister This split has upset traditional Shiv Sena voters creating concerns about the partys core character and directionSimilarly the NCP has had internal differences with one part led by Sharad Pawar and the other by Ajit Pawar who joined the ruling alliance alongside the BJP For decades the NCP has maintained a consistent voter base notably in rural Maharashtra where the Pawar family is deeply rooted However the separation has created confusion among voters about the partyrsquos vision and leadershipHow voter sentiments could shape pollsMidday spoke to experts to understand the impact of the split on the voters and how it could sway the upcoming electionsRitwik Mehta the founder of think tank Niti Tantra and political strategist told midday that among the two Senas the Eknath Shindeled faction performed better in the Lok Sabha Elections 2024 and NCPSP was able to still retain their votersldquoThe Lok Sabha 2024 results show that Shiv Sena voters are divided between Shiv Sena and Shiv Sena UBT though Shiv Sena had a much better performance and strike rate SS UBT contested 21 seats and won 9 while Shiv Sena contested 15 and won 7 seats In 13 straight fights between Shiv Sena and Shiv Sena UBT the former won 7 while the latter won only 6 This shows that Eknath Shinde was able to pull a large number of cadre and traditional voters to his party while Shiv Sena UBT was dependent on Congressrsquos Muslim vote bankrdquo he saidSpeaking about the split in NCP Mehta said ldquoNCP SP comes out to be the biggest winner The party contested 10 seats and won 8 while NCP contested 4 and won only 1 This clearly shows that the cadre as well as the voters of NCP are still with Sharad Pawar and will continue to do so as many such surveys recently showrdquoldquoThe fragmentation has dented Sena UBT more than the NCPrdquo Mehta said adding ldquoBut this was all in Lok Sabha itrsquos the time for Assembly elections where polls are fought at hyperlocal issues and individual faces as wellrdquoMeanwhile political analyst Abhay Deshpande observed that the Lok Sabha Elections 2024 was the first time people got to voice their mandate and things may play out differently during Maharashtra Elections 2024Deshpande speaking to midday said ldquoThe separation of the NCP from Sharad Pawar and the Shiv Sena from the Thackeray family has sparked widespread voter support affecting the political scene in Maharashtra Furthermore growing dissatisfaction with Prime Minister Narendra Modi over topics such as the CAANRC has resulted in a consolidation of Muslim voters leaning towards the opposition Constitutional amendments have also helped to consolidate Dalit support while ongoing Maratha quota protests have strengthened the Maha Vikas Aghadis MVA appeal However the bigger picture shows a narrow margin between the MVA and Mahayuti alliances with only over 200000 votes separating them across MaharashtrardquoAssembly and Lok Sabha elections have different voting patterns and different issues are discussed The patterns are bound to change he said and added that based on the latest available data MVA is leading in 150 assembly segments and Mahayuti is not far from behindDeshpande added that the rebel leaders who have defected to other parties will decide the outcome of the electionldquoIt is yet to be gauged as to how strong sentiments of antiincumbency are against the leaders who lsquobetrayedrsquo their party the leaders defected due to BJP driving a wedgerdquo said the political analystHe said the canvas is smaller in Maharashtra Elections 2024 and the candidates have more weight over the partyldquoBased on the Haryana elections candidates who bring 1000 to 2000 changed the game While the two states have different conditions depending on how firm the rebels remain in the fray will be an important issue It can only be clear after November 3rdquo he saidInfrastructure ladki bahin hit voter sentimentWhen asked whether the infrastructural upgrades and big pocket inaugurations like Coastal Road Mumbai Metro Lines 7A 3 and 11 and similar projects across the state will have any impact on Maharashtra Elections 2024 Deepak Pawar political analyst and professor at Mumbai University said that the Mahayutindashmore so the BJPndashhas set the narrative that the saffron party has worked towards development which had come to a halt during Uddhav Thackerayrsquos term as a Chief Minister during CovidldquoDespite the Mumbai Metro ridership especially on Line 7A not having hit a significant number of ridership and metro lines not having lastmile connectivity the BJP has set the narrative the Thackerayrsquos MVA government purposely halted development works unlike the party BJP claims to be prodevelopment and the elections and postelection period will be optimal to conduct a serious evaluation of the Coastal Road the metro linerdquo Pawar saidHe added that a critical understanding of such projects beneficiaries is crucialldquoIf the common personrsquos travel is not going to change and it benefits only car users there is a serious need to rethinkrdquo Pawar saidPawar added ldquoIn the coming years the landscape of elections will completely move towards urban areas and then questions on road connectivity metro etc will become an important field of discussionrdquoMeanwhile Deshpande said that the urban voters unlike the divide and rule believed in the principle of provide and ruleldquoInfrastructure projects will have an impact on the poll results since urban voters cast their ballots based on what amenities they received However emotional issues will crop up ndashlike Gujarat snatching projects from Maharashtra which began after Vedanta Foxconn Mumbai will be broken etc will dominate the campaign However it wonrsquot be as effective as concrete infrastructural projectsrdquo he saidSecondly under the Ladki Bahin scheme over 2 crore women have received money for the next three to four monthsrsquo sum ldquoThe schemersquos impact is seen in rural areas women claim the money as rightfully theirs Due to the code of conduct the government released funds sufficient for October November which help peoplerdquo said DeshpandeHe said that the aspirational crowd can avail stipend program meanwhile they have also launched a scheme wherein old persons who wish to go on pilgrimageldquoWhile the media did not discuss this much the pilgrimage scheme for senior citizensndashwherein the government provides tickets to one pilgrimage site This scheme is primarily for those who complain that their children donrsquot give them moneyrdquo said DeshpandeThe Raj Thackeray factor A new challengerRaj Thackeray the founder of the Maharashtra Navnirman Sena MNS has emerged on the political scene complicating election dynamics Raj Thackeray wellknown for his Marathi pride agenda may have an impact on voter sentiment particularly among those who share his strong regional focus His reentry has sparked debate among people who may have been disillusioned with the Shiv Sena divide and seek a new alternative While his MNS has yet to achieve big election successes his charisma and regional allegiance may appeal to voters seeking stability and clarity amid Shiv Sena disputesWhen asked about his opinion on MNSrsquo resurfacing Mehta said ldquoAfter giving full support to Mahayuti during Lok Sabha elections Raj Thackerayrsquos MNS Is going to contest independently in the upcoming elections MNS is strong only in Mumbai and Nashik region In Mumbai the MNS leaders will pull the Marathi voters probably cutting into the Shiv Sena UBT votes and in Nashik will also dent into some Maratha voters Mahim will witness a highvoltage drama where Rajrsquos son Amit Thackeray is going to contest and I think Raj will make sure that his son wins his first battle In Mumbai the BJPrsquos core vote bank is the North Indian Gujarati and Marwadi communities So in seats like Versova Bhandup West etc where the Marathi community is more and doesnrsquot vote for the BJP the MNS will cut into Shiv Sena UBT votes and help BJP ultimatelyrdquoPawar speaking to the newspaper had said that he does not believe Raj Thackeray entering the fray will have any impact on Maharashtra Elections 2024 ldquoIn May he announced that he would support PM Modi unconditionally What happened in the months after that was that he was going solo in assembly polls I believe he and Mahayuti partners have joined forces and in assembly segments where MVA is likely to win the MNS will divide its vote bankrdquo he saidMaratha quota amp Dhangar community protestWhen asked about how Manoj Jarange entering the fray will impact the Maharashtra Elections 2024 Deepak Pawar said that the quota activist had said that after both alliances finalise their candidates he will release his listldquoWhen Jarange began his protest and the movement rumours were rife that Sharad Pawar was backing him however with the image that has emerged in last year Eknath Shinde seems to be backing him CM Shinde is now walking a tightrope having to manage Mahayuti and Jarange while aiming to outshine MVArdquo he saidldquoThe leaders fielded by Jarange instead of winning some seats in Marathwada and western region can bring down other partiesrsquo candidates if they have set their aim on anyrdquo he addedPawar said that the Maratha quota activist and his followers are miffed with Devendra Fadnavis which again is based on caste dynamics within a communityHowever Jarangersquos fight for Marathas to be included as Kunbis and therefore in the OBC category wonrsquot be possible since it is a Constitutional battle he addedWhile speaking about whether any national issues would affect Maharashtra Elections 2024 Abhay Deshpande noted that one factor was unaccounted for in previous pollsndashThe Uniform Civil CodeldquoIn conversations with leaders in Nandurbar it emerged that the impact of the Uniform Civil Code UCC on the election results had been overlooked Leaders noted that there was a strong belief among the tribal population that the UCC would threaten their special rights and protections Nandurbar being a region with a significant tribal demographic felt the influence of this issue keenlyrdquo he saidDeshpande further speaking said that the messaging was widely circulated in the ST constituencies The second major subject of discussion he said in the tribal areas of Maharashtra is the inclusion of the Dhangar community in the ST categoryldquoIn constituencies with predominantly tribal populations the issue of the Dhangar communityrsquos inclusion in the ST category has escalated Maharashtra Deputy Speaker Nirhari Zirwal of ruling Mahayuti and other tribal leaders had jumped off Mantralayarsquos third floor over this issue This is a sentimental issue some donrsquot want inclusion of Dhangar community in ST category it will be deciding factor on who wins in tribal areasrdquo he saidAn election defined by complexity and changeAs Maharashtra voters go to the polls they have more options and obstacles than in past elections The political landscape has changed as a result of the Shiv Sena and NCP split Raj Thackerays reemergence and altering economic priorities This election could be a watershed moment with voters deciding whether to stick to established party affiliations or explore new political possibilitiesIn a state as diverse as Maharashtra these variations in voter mood would likely influence the election results It is unclear if voters will support established legacies or take a risk on new alliances and competitors